Sunday, February 10, 2008

Who are the better candidates?

I've been hearing that I need to improve my economic street cred by using more calculations in my blog. So try to control your excitement as I whip out an application of bayes theorem.

Intrade lists the probability each candidate becoming president, as well as winning their party's nomination. From this you can derive that probability of a candidate winning given they get the nomination:


There you go. There's no big distinction between Clinton and Obama. All the other candidates have probabilities of winning the presidency so low that the calculation isn't worth much. Notice how I used the geeky mathematical form to show the probabilities....street cred.

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