Thursday, November 8, 2007


...It's a website the combines two of economists favorite things, user-generated content and prediction markets. Economists like user-generated content because they create bottom up solutions instead of bureaucratic top down solutions. Economists also like predictions markets because they are a very effective way to organize information. People who have a large amount of knowledge on a subject will bet a large amount while people who know little won't participate. This method is very effective at weeding out "truthiness." That being said I think they made a mistake in listing what the most common prediction is for each market, this allows people that don't know a lot about the topic to participate by simply choosing the option that is in the lead. Regardless, if these predictions turn out to be accurate it could very well change the way we think about risk.
Check it out

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