Can the resource boom last?

Mark Carney says no:

TORONTO — The high commodity prices that have shielded Canada from recessionary conditions in the United States are poised to weaken and drag down the Canadian economy, the Bank of Canada's new Governor warned yesterday.

Even though oil and gold have been trading at record levels over the past few days, Mark Carney said in an interview he is looking beyond the day-to-day market gyrations to determine how the U.S. slump will worm its way into Canada.

Already, Canada has felt the effects of plunging exports to the United States, and is gradually feeling the impact of tighter credit conditions spilling over the border, Mr. Carney said.

Now it appears the U.S. slump will be deeper and will stick around longer than the central bank had expected, and the pain is being felt around the world, Mr. Carney said.

Global demand for many of the commodities that have fuelled Canada's prosperity will be hit, he predicted in his first round of interviews since becoming Governor of the central bank last month.

“Ultimately, it means slower growth than otherwise would have been experienced in a range of markets, including in emerging market economies.”

“That will have an impact on the outlook for commodity prices and terms of trade – a dampening impact,” Mr. Carney said.

“You don't see it in spot markets right now but you will likely see it going forward. That's one channel through which this will come back into Canada.”

Get the full version here

--Historically we have seen resource prices decrease over time as economies move to other forms of production. However, the last few years this trend has reversed. Will it continue? Nobody knows, but history is not on our side.

Canadian Income Tax Rates

from the economist:

There you go. Tell your American friends to stick that in their pipe and smoke it.

Don't mention we pay higher sales taxes, higher gas taxes, and higher liquor tax. Don't mention these all fall heavily on the poor.

RESP plan

In case you haven't heard, the liberals have come out with a plan to make savings for college tuition tax deductible. Making college affordable is a worthy goal, especially for somebody in my position. This plan is not the right way to go about it.

Most middle class families are already saving for their kids education. For these people the plan is simply a tax cut. Putting more money into the hands of people that are already doing alright. I would be in favour of increasing financial aid for people who really need the money, the plan would be more effective and less expensive.

Either way, it doesn't stand much of a shot at becoming law.

Good news for Canadian jobs

Statistics Canada reported that the economy added 43,000 more jobs in February, beating predictions. Unemployment hit a 33 year low at 5.8%. Wages are up too.

More important to most Canadians, the United States lost 63,000 jobs. Stupid Americans, now we can finally get them back for....ummmm....eeehhhh......NOT KNOWING WHERE SASKATCHEWAN IS. Stupid Americans.

Election in Canada's future?

With all the hubbub surrounding the new federal budget Intrade has recently added a new market to predict if there will be an election within the year. A whole one contract was traded today. An election is probably not a good idea for the liberals at this point. They are currently at 2 to 1 odds for losing the next election.

Canadian Labour Party?

I really wish that folks in the media would take more pride in their jobs



if there is anybody from MSCBC reading this let me clarify, this is the U.K:












It has a Labour party

This is Canada:












it does not

Does Harper want the GOP in power?

In case you haven't heard the story about Obama and NAFTA, there were reports that his campaign gave a wink and a nod to the Canadian embassy about Obama's recent attacks of NAFTA. Saying the attacks were political and not meant to be taken seriously. The campaign denies this.

Now rumors are flying that this was a stunt by the conservatives in an effort to embarrass Obama and try to give a hand to John McCain. I'm not sure. Besides ideology, here are a the reasons I could think of that Harper would want to GOP in power:

• Canadians generally think of themselves as more progressive than Americans. If the Americans elect a progressive leader, Canada might want one too.
• Having a Republican in power makes America less popular and raises nationalistic sediment in Canada, this could work in favour of the head of state
• The GOP is generally more free trade and therefore would make it easier to resolve running trade disputes.
  
• A left wing government in the U.S. may hold more contempt for a right-wing Canadian government, and therefore be harder to work with.
  
• The continuation of the war is Iraq will cause greater political instability in the middle east, driving up the price of oil and profits for Alberta.
  

All of these reasons are purely speculative, I'm not claiming that I have any evidence to show what is really happening, but it is always worthwhile to look at the incentives facing your government.

Gall-Peters Projection

I saw this map for the first time yesterday and stared at it for about 10 minutes. The Gall-Peters projection shows land masses in their true proportion and has 90 degree lat-log interceptions.

I'm accustomed to looking at a Mollweide projection (lower). I bet you didn't picture Germany being that far north. I didn't. I think I need to go back to grade two.