Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Prediction markets accurate in Pennsylvania

Yes, I am still here, posting has been light. Exam season tend to have that effect on people.

The big news this week is Hilary's win in Pennsylvania. What is pretty amazing is that the Intrade markets barley moved after the results came in. Meaning that the results were almost exactly as expected. Here is the graph tracking Barak Obama's nomination over the past two weeks.

1 comment:

joy said...

Comments about prediction marketsA prediction market is a bit like the stock market,except that you are buying shares whose value depends on the success of a political candidate, rather than the profits earned by a corporation.And just as stock prices are a useful barometer of the health of a company,so too the price of a prediction contract is a barometer of the health of a political campaign.How do these markets work? Right now, you can buy a $1 bill for 44 cents;the only catch is that you only get the $1 if Hillary Clinton is our next President.The fact that this $1 bill is selling for 44 cents tells us that "the market" believes her to have a 44% chance of winning the presidency,a number that has risen sharply as she has become more likely to win the Democratic nomination.

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